Bitcoin finally managed to surpass the $80,750 mark over the weekend, leaving behind that zone of uncertainty around $78,000 that had dominated the previous week. After that scare with Iran's news on Wednesday, when the coin dropped near $75,500, the market took a deep breath when we learned that Tehran had sent a ceasefire proposal to Washington. WTI oil plummeted nearly 3% as a result, reaching about $102 per barrel, and Bitcoin took the opportunity to regain some momentum.

But what really caught attention this week was the regulatory side. The Senate finally reached an agreement on the Clarity Act after months of intense negotiations between crypto companies and the banking lobby. Basically, the proposal by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks will prevent stablecoin issuers from offering yields solely through reserve retention, but keeps reward programs linked to real activities on the platform intact. This is important because it opens space for the crypto market to continue functioning with structured incentives, while addressing banking concerns.

The stock market, in turn, did not stop rising. The S&P 500 closed at a record high for the fifth consecutive week, with the Nasdaq 100 soaring thanks to solid results from Apple and Oracle. Apple rose 3.2% with revenue forecasts above expectations, while Oracle jumped 6.5% after announcing it had entered the list of AI companies working with classified Pentagon networks. Ether remains steady around $2,330, XRP at $1.45, Solana at $95.09. The highlight was Dogecoin, which surged nearly 10% during the week and reached $0.11, with open interest in futures hitting a record for the year.

Daniel Reis-Faria, CEO of ZeroStack, made an interesting observation about all this. According to him, Bitcoin trading in this range is not exactly crypto weakness, but a reflection of broader macro indecision. The Fed kept rates where they were, but no one really knows where it’s headed next. This is leaving investors in doubt, and you can see this in the outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. It doesn’t mean institutions are abandoning the market, just that they’re not expanding exposure at the moment. If money starts to flow back, especially from institutions or through ETFs, Bitcoin could rise quickly.

What’s curious is this divergence between Wall Street and Main Street that analysts are commenting on. BTC and Nasdaq have risen quite a bit lately, generating paper gains for American investors, but consumer sentiment has fallen to record lows. It’s clear that the crypto market and stocks are increasingly being shaped by institutional capital. Tokens like Notcoin and other alternative assets are also in this mix, waiting for a clearer macroeconomic catalyst. Notcoin, by the way, has been one of the tokens that best reflects this broader market dynamic.

For next week, the situation remains the same. Bitcoin needs a new catalyst to decisively break above $80,750 and move forward. The most likely options would be clarity from the Fed on the next steps, a reacceleration of flows into ETFs, or perhaps a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Until then, Notcoin and other altcoins will also stay in this waiting game. The market is ready to move, it just needs a clear reason to do so.